Are You Ready for the Next Influenza Outbreak?

Conflicting reports in the media have healthcare professionals wondering exactly what this year’s influenza season will bring – a pandemic of novel H1N1 flu or a mild seasonal outbreak. In late August, the media seized upon a presidential advisory panel report that indicated as many as 90,000 U.S. deaths could be attributable to novel H1N1 influenza, that up to 50 percent of U.S. population could be infected this fall and winter, and that flu illnesses could trigger as many as 1.8 million U.S. hospital admissions.

The report issued by the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology¹ suggests that 30,000 to 90,000 deaths are projected as part of a “plausible scenario” involving large outbreaks at schools, inadequate antiviral supplies and the virus peaking before vaccinations have time to be effective. To keep this number in perspective, experts add that seasonal influenza can claim as many as 40,000 lives annually. Every year in the U.S., on average, up to 20 percent of the population is infected with seasonal flu. On average, more than 200,000 hospitalizations occurred each year from 1979 to 2001 as a result of flu and its complications. In addition, on average, approximately 36,000 persons died each year from 1990 to 1999 from the flu and its related complications; more than 90 percent of these deaths occurred among persons 65 years of age or older.

The world first learned of H1N1 influenza in late April, and on June 11, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the H1N1 virus a global pandemic. More than 1,490 people around the world have died from the virus since it emerged this spring.

Public health officials are unsure of what the fall will bring. CNN has quoted Thomas Frieden, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), as remarking, “Even with the best efforts, this will cause some illness, some severe illness and unfortunately, some deaths... But a lot so far has gone remarkably right. There’s a vaccine well on its way to being distributed, diagnostic tests available in well over 100 laboratories, treatments pre-positioned around the country ... and guidance issued for healthcare providers, schools, businesses and other communities.”²