Viruses love plane travel. They get to fly around the world inside a closed container while their infected carrier breathes and coughs, spreading pathogens to other passengers, either by direct contact or through the air. And once people deplane, the virus can spread to other geographical areas.
Scientists already know that smallpox, measles, tuberculosis, seasonal influenza and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) can be transmitted during commercial flights. Now, in the first study to predict the number of H1N1 flu infections that could occur during a flight, UCLA researchers found that transmission during transatlantic travel could be fairly high.
Reporting in the current online edition of the journal BMC Medicine, Sally Blower, director of the Center for Biomedical Modeling at the Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior at UCLA, along with Bradley Wagner and Brian Coburn, postdoctoral fellows in Blower's research group, used novel mathematical modeling techniques to predict in-flight transmission of the H1N1 virus.
They found that transmission could be rather significant, particularly during long flights, if the infected individual travels in economy class. Specifically, two to five infections could occur during a five-hour flight, five to 10 during an 11-hour flight, and seven to 17 during a 17-hour flight.
"Clearly, it was air travel, by transporting infectious individuals from the epicenter in Mexico to other geographic locations, that significantly affected the spread of H1N1 during the outbreak last spring," Coburn said. "However, until our study, it hadn't been determined how important in-flight transmission could be. Therefore, we decided to make a mathematical model and predict what could be expected to occur during a flight."
Using methods from the field of quantitative microbial risk assessment, the researchers determined the number of potential infections in one transatlantic flight, assuming there was just a single infected passenger on board.