Robert Brigantic and colleagues at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Richland, Wash., and teams at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in California, and Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, report details of their simulations in the current issue of the International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management.
When there is a confirmed human outbreak of a pandemic influenza virus overseas, the U.S. National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza calls for screening of passengers scheduled to fly into the
They have tested their simulation under different pandemic scenarios and carried out an analysis of the impact of alternative mitigative, diagnostic and quarantine measures that can be used. Their results could help decision makers plan for the resources needed at the port-of-entry airports, anticipate possible developments during a pandemic, and devise appropriate courses of action to prevent the spread of disease through the
"The simulation work is easily adaptable to model other types of outbreaks, to include non-influenza virus type outbreaks or disease spread," says Brigantic.
The researchers conclude that there are several key factors that could reduce the risk of a pandemic influenza spreading widely in the