The risk of sports fans catching dengue fever during the Rio Olympics is very low, according to a new study involving mathematicians at the University of Strathclyde.
Athletes and foreign visitors have expressed concern about catching the mosquito-borne disease this summer, as Brazil has the highest recorded number of dengue cases worldwide.
But using mathematical modelling, academics have forecast the worst case scenario would be 23 tourists bringing home dengue fever, and 206 catching the illness with no symptoms.
The research was carried out by a team including academics at the University of Strathclyde, the University of São Paulo and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, led by Professor Eduardo Massad. The data was analyzed by Raphael Ximenes a PhD student currently at the University of Strathclyde from the University of São Paulo.
Dr. David Greenhalgh of the University of Strathclyde's Department of Mathematics and Statistics, said, "The Olympics is expected to attract some 400,000 foreign visitors in addition to around 600,000 domestic supporters. As Brazil is the country with the highest number of dengue cases worldwide, concern about the risk to tourists is justifiable. However, tourists may take some comfort from mathematical modelling, which suggests that even if the number of new cases in the worst month of August in history was matched, the risk to travelers is still extremely low."
Dengue fever is a viral, flu-like illness which is spread by infected mosquitoes - in Brazil most commonly the Aedes aegypti mosquito. The condition is widespread in areas of the world with a high mosquito population, typically within major urban centers with a warm and humid climate.
There are currently no specific medications to treat the disease, but it usually clears up by itself within 14 days. A very small number of people go on to develop severe dengue, a complication which can be life-threatening.
Ximenes said, "Rio de Janeiro has been of major importance for the study of dengue, as the city has suffered a number of outbreaks. For that reason, properly quantifying the risk to foreign visitors to the Olympics is vital.
"Mathematical modelling is providing an important tool in helping public health experts predict the probability of tourists developing the disease."
The team is now looking at using similar modelling techniques to explore the future risk of the Zika virus.
The research was published in BMC Infectious Diseases.
Source: University of Strathclyde
Stay prepared and protected with Infection Control Today's newsletter, delivering essential updates, best practices, and expert insights for infection preventionists.
US Withdrawal From UNESCO Signals a Dangerous Step Back for Global Science
July 22nd 2025In a decision heavy with consequence and light on foresight, the US has once again chosen to walk away from UNESCO, leaving behind not just a seat at the table, but a legacy of global scientific leadership that now lies in question.
Breaking the Cycle of Silence: Why Sharps Injuries Go Unreported and What Can Be Done
Published: July 24th 2025 | Updated: July 23rd 2025Despite decades of progress in health care safety, a quiet but dangerous culture still lingers: many health care workers remain afraid to report sharps injuries, fearing blame more than the wound itself.
Telemedicine's Transformative Role in PPE Distribution and Sterile Equipment Management
July 22nd 2025In an era defined by digital transformation and post-pandemic urgency, telemedicine has evolved beyond virtual visits to become a vital infrastructure for delivering personal protective equipment (PPE) and managing sterile supplies. By enabling real-time forecasting, remote quality control, and equitable distribution, telemedicine is revolutionizing how health care systems protect both patients and providers.
Reducing Hidden Risks: Why Sharps Injuries Still Go Unreported
July 18th 2025Despite being a well-known occupational hazard, sharps injuries continue to occur in health care facilities and are often underreported, underestimated, and inadequately addressed. A recent interview with sharps safety advocate Amanda Heitman, BSN, RN, CNOR, a perioperative educational consultant, reveals why change is overdue and what new tools and guidance can help.