Researchers Examine Seasonal Population Migration and Infection


Despite advances in surveillance and prevention, pneumonia and influenza (P&I) remain among the leading causes of mortality in the United States. Elderly adults experience the most severe morbidity from influenza-associated diseases, and have the highest rates of seasonal migration within the U.S. compared to other subpopulations.

Kenneth K.H. Chui, of the Department of Public Health and Community Medicine at Tufts University School of Medicine in Boston, and colleagues, sought to assess spatiotemporal patterns in influenza-associated hospitalizations in the elderly, by time, geography, and intensity of P&I. Given the high seasonal migration of individuals to Florida, this state was examined more closely using harmonic regression to assess spatial and temporal patterns of P&I hospitalizations by state of residence.

Data containing all Medicare-eligible hospitalizations in the United States for 1991-2006 with P&I (ICD-9-CM codes 480-487) were abstracted for the 65-plus population. Hospitalizations were classified by state of residence, provider state, and date of admissions, specifically comparing those admitted between October and March to those admitted between April and September. The researchers then compared the hospitalization profile data of Florida residents with that of out-of-state residents by state of primary residence and time of year (in-season or out-of-season).

Chui, et al. observed distinct seasonal patterns of nonresident P&I hospitalizations, especially comparing typical winter destination states, such as California, Arizona, Texas and Florida, to other states. Although most other states generally experienced a higher proportion of non-resident P&I during the summer months (April through September), these states had higher nonresident P&I during the traditional peak influenza season (October through March).

According to the researchers, this study is among the first to quantify spatiotemporal P&I hospitalization patterns in the elderly, focusing on the change of patterns that are possibly due to seasonal population migration. Understanding migration and influenza-associated disease patterns in this vulnerable population is critical to prepare for and potentially prevent influenza outbreaks in this vulnerable population. Their research was published in BMC Public Health.

Reference: Chui KKH, Cohen SA and Naumova EN. Snowbirds and infection--new phenomena in pneumonia and influenza hospitalizations from winter migration of older adults: A spatiotemporal analysis. BMC Public Health 2011, 11:444doi:10.1186/1471-2458-11-444

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