Virus Evolution and Human Behavior Shape Global Patterns of Flu Movement


The global movement patterns of all four seasonal influenza viruses are illustrated in research published today in the journal Nature, providing a detailed account of country-to-country virus spread over the last decade and revealing unexpected differences in circulation patterns between viruses.

In the study, an international team of researchers led by Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Cambridge, and including all five World Health Organization (WHO) Influenza Collaborating Centers, report surprising differences between the various types of seasonal flu virus, which they show to be due to the rate at which the different viruses evolve.

There are four types of influenza viruses that cause seasonal flu in humans: two influenza A viruses (H3N2 and H1N1) and two influenza B viruses (Yamagata and Victoria). While H3N2 viruses are the most common of the seasonal influenza viruses, H1N1 and B viruses also cause epidemics worldwide each year, hence the WHO selects representative strains of all four A and B viruses for inclusion in the seasonal influenza vaccine each year.

Importantly, all four of the viruses cause indistinguishable symptoms and evolve by similar mechanisms to escape immunity induced by prior infections and vaccinations. This ‘antigenic’ evolution is part of why people get influenza multiple times over the course of their lives.

In 2008, an international team led by scientists from the University of Cambridge, writing in the journal Science, showed that H3N2 viruses circulate continuously in East and Southeast Asia throughout the year, spreading to the rest of the world each year to cause seasonal flu epidemics. Given the fundamental similarities between H3N2, H1N1, and B infection it was thought that they would also emerge from east and southeast Asia to cause yearly epidemics worldwide. However, the work published today in Nature shows that in fact, H1N1 and B viruses behave very differently from H3N2 viruses.

“It’s really surprising to find that the H3N2 viruses are unique among the seasonal influenza viruses,” says Dr. Trevor Bedford, a Fred Hutch virologist who, with Dr. Colin Russell of Cambridge, led the study. “It’s almost as surprising to find that the differences among viruses are associated with a simple phenomenon: how quickly the viruses evolve antigenically.”

Russell, from the Department of Veterinary Medicine at the University of Cambridge, UK, adds, “While H3N2 viruses die out between epidemics and new viruses emerge from east and southeast Asia every year, H1N1 and B viruses frequently circulate continuously between epidemics worldwide. This continuous circulation gives rise to a huge diversity in H1N1 and B viruses circulating globally.”

Interestingly, the researchers found that sometimes new H1N1 and B variants emerge from outside east and southeast Asia and are subsequently seeded into Asia, while in other cases H1N1 and B variants circulate in Asia for years without spreading globally.

The Nature study finds that the rate of global movement of each virus, and its ability to circulate continuously between epidemics, is shaped by how quickly that virus changes its coat to escape immunity in the human population. Viruses that evolve quickly, in particular H3N2, spread around the world rapidly, but die out quickly between epidemics. Viruses that evolve more slowly, like H1N1 and B viruses, spread around the world more slowly but are also better at circulating continuously between epidemics.

The key element about global movement is who is getting infected: faster evolving viruses, like H3N2, can infect adults, who tend to travel more frequently than children, providing more opportunities for the virus to spread. Conversely, more slowly evolving viruses, such as H1N1 and B viruses, primarily infect children. Children get sick with all four seasonal flu viruses, but H3N2 evolves faster so it infects adults more often. This leads to a greater proportion of adult infections with H3N2 relative to H1N1 and B viruses, and faster spread of H3N2 viruses.

“There is this interesting interaction between how the viruses behave and how we behave,” Bedford adds. “Because they evolve slightly differently, they end up infecting people of different ages. Because of how people travel – adults get on planes more – you end up with these very large-scale differences in how these viruses move around the world.”

The Nature study also sheds important light on the role of India in the global spread of seasonal influenza viruses. Scientists and public health officials had long known that China and Southeast Asia were important for the evolution and spread of seasonal influenza viruses. However, based on the analysis of an extensive collection of viruses from India, it is now clear that India may be as central as China to the ongoing evolution of seasonal influenza viruses.

The research was primarily funded by the Royal Society and US National Institutes of Health with extensive involvement of the World Health Organization’s Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System.

Source: Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center 

Related Videos
Rare Disease Month: An Infection Control Today® and Contagion® collaboration.
Vaccine conspiracy theory vector illustration word cloud  (Adobe Stock 460719898 by Colored Lights)
Rare Disease Month: An Infection Control Today® and Contagion® collaboration.
Infection Control Today Topic of the Month: Mental Health
Infection Control Today's topic of the month: Mental Health
Infection Control Today Topic of the Month: Mental Health
Lucy S. Witt, MD, investigates hospital bed's role in C difficile transmission, emphasizing room interactions and infection prevention
Infection Control Today Topic of the Month: Mental Health
Cleaning and sanitizing surfaces in hospitals  (Adobe Stock 339297096 by Melinda Nagy)
Related Content